By John R. Talbott

I have been waiting for more than five years to offer this advice. It is now time in most cities across the country to buy a new home or refinance your existing home with thirty-year fixed rate mortgage debt. And this from the author of The Coming Crash in the Housing Marketpublished in 2003 and my 2006 book, Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble. Let me explain why.

Home Prices Relative to Peak Prices During Bubble

Home prices are off anywhere from 10% to more than 60% in cities across the country. There is no reason to believe that prices were “fair” during the bubble as we have seen they were largely caused by loose and aggressive lending by banks and non-banks. But, it is always better to buy at a discount rather than at a historical peak, and these seem like awfully big discounts. And by my calculations, in most cities across the country, real prices adjusted for inflation have just about come into line with where prices were in 1997, before all this crazy bank lending started, so there should be little additional downside risk by buying today. There are still some neighborhoods across the country that have not seen very dramatic declines in price, many of them very wealthy and expensive enclaves, but given the distribution of incomes lately heavily weighed toward the wealthy, these areas may never see a really large home price decline.

Home Prices Relative to Construction Costs or Replacement Costs

Homes in many cities across the country are now selling for as little as $60 to $70 a square foot. Depending on the quality of construction and the underlying land value, this represents a 50% to 65% discount to the costs you would incur if you tried to build a similar home today in these cities. While there is no guarantee that there will be a strong rental market in the short run, in the long run it just seems to make sense to buy if you can acquire assets at half or less of the cost of building them.

Home Prices Relative to Incomes and Rents

During the peak years of the housing bubble, entire cities like San Diego were seeing their homes priced on average at 11 times the area’s median family income. Such prices financed primarily with debt are by definition unsustainable. Now, because banks have pulled back on their lending formulas, homes in many cities are changing hands at three to four times average family incomes. Similarly, at the peak, houses traded at such large multiples of possible rents that it made the projects uneconomic from the start. Now, with homes trading at more reasonable multiples of rents, houses and condos can be purchased that are immediately cash flow positive in year one and enjoy all the upside of any appreciation that will occur as inflation returns.

Home Prices in Real Terms, Not US Dollar Terms

We still talk about home prices in dollar terms, which is silly because the dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power relative to a more stable asset like gold over the last fifty years. If instead of pricing houses in dollars, we look and see what a home would cost in ounces of gold, we see that houses today are a real bargain. As a matter of fact, this graph shows that average homes, measured in the number of gold ounces it would take to buy them, are now trading at forty year historical lows.

You might argue that this is because gold is priced highly today. I would argue that gold’s purchasing power has changed very little over time, it is the dollar that is depreciating and thus giving the appearance that the price of gold is rising. Actually, gold is quite stable relative to other assets and commodities and it is the dollar that is highly volatile and declining in value due to the US funding its deficits by printing dollars.

The Real Bubble – US Treasuries and Future Inflation

The real bubble out there is longer US Treasuries and 30-year fixed rate mortgages for home-buyers. With US debt equal to its GDP and equal to more than four times our government’s total tax revenues and with annual deficits of $1.3 trillion and growing, it is amazing to me that people will lend to the US for thirty years for less than 3.0% a year. Even more amazing is that individual homeowners can borrow at 4.0% (around 3% after tax) for thirty years on a fixed rate basis, some 300 basis points better than Italy which has a lot more people and makes much better shoes.

Homes may not appreciate greatly in real terms over the next twenty years, but they don’t have to if inflation comes back, which is the only way the US and Europe are going to get out from under the huge debts on their countries and their banks. You may not make a lot in real terms on the house, but if inflation returns, you could make a killing on your investment as your thirty year debt becomes worth less and less in real terms. Run the numbers, but if inflation and interest rates go back to say, 7% to 8%, you could easily make eight to ten times your equity investment on the house because you locked in your borrowing costs and home appreciations historically have always correlated well with unanticipated inflation.

So, run, do not walk to your neighborhood banker and either finance a new home purchase or take out the maximum amount of money he or she will lend you on a home equity loan and buy hard assets, not financial securities, with the money. When inflation comes roaring back the only perfect hedge is to be a borrower, not a lender or investor. Shakespeare said, “Neither a borrower nor a lender be,” but they didn’t have huge government deficits and the risk of future inflation back in the Bard’s time.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours

The following is out of Section 30 of MRED’s Rules and Regulations:

MRED prohibits the delivery of Agent Only Information to non-licensed personnel, with the exception of seller clients, administrative staff and technical vendors. “Agent Only Information” is defined as the following data: Cooperative Compensation, Agent Remarks, Showing Instructions, Lockbox Codes, and Expiration Dates. Violation of this rule will result in an automatic fine of $25.00 per reported occurrence.

PLEASE NOTE: the distribution of Agent Reports out of connectMLS violates this Rule, as “Agent Only Information” is contained in those reports. Be sure to use the system’s Client Reports instead.

BY DONNA VICKROY dvickroy@southtownstar.com December 27, 2011 12:02AM

Just like unrestrained front seat riders, back seat passengers who aren’t buckled up during an accident can suffer head, chest and abdominal trauma.

“And they can be thrown from the vehicle,” said James Doherty, medical director of trauma and critical care programs at Christ Medical Center in Oak Lawn.

But back seat passengers also can become human projectiles during a crash, injuring or even killing others in the vehicle, he said.

Beginning Jan. 1, Illinois will require all passengers, including previously exempt back seat riders age 18 and older, to buckle up.

“It’s a good law,” New Lenox Deputy Police Chief April DiSandro said. “It makes sense. If you have to be belted in the front seat, why not the back?”

The bill, which was sponsored by state Senate President John Cullerton (D-Chicago) and the late state Rep. Mark Beaubien (R-Barrington Hills), was signed into law during the summer. It allows police officers to stop a car if they spot an unbuckled rider. Fines start at $25 but can be more, depending on court costs.

While most people killed in automobile accidents are front seat riders, Doherty said, 64 percent of back seat passengers killed are not wearing seat belts.

“It’s a public-safety issue that trumps personal decision-making,” Doherty said. “Unfortunately, some things need to be required by law to keep people safe.”

According to the Centers for Disease Control, seat belts reduce serious crash-related injuries and deaths by about 50 percent.

Lt. Tim McCormick, of the Orland Park Police Department, said seat belt offenders give thousands of excuses for not buckling up. Mostly, officers hear the belt is uncomfortable or that it’s broken or that the person was “just going somewhere really quick and forgot to put it on.”

There will be some legitimate reasons for not buckling up, he said, including a doctor’s excuse in the case of a broken collarbone or shoulder injury. In addition, emergency vehicles, buses, taxis and passengers in delivery trucks that make frequent stops and that do not exceed 15 mph are exempt from the new seat belt law, as well as people riding in a motor vehicle from 1965 or earlier.

But McCormick said that come Jan. 1, there will be no more excuses for the general driving population. Even cops have to wear them, he said.

“What it comes down to is everyone in the car gets belted, even if you don’t want to,” he said.

Unrestrained riders can hit their heads on the roof of the car, hit the headrest or be thrown out a side or back window.

“None of it’s pretty,” he said.

Keep in mind, he said, that the belts have to be properly adjusted. So no slipping the shoulder portion behind your back. And if your belly is too big for the belt, you need to buy an extension, he said.

Dina Navas, crime prevention officer for Tinley Park, reminded that Illinois law requires all children younger than 8 to be properly restrained in an appropriate child safety seat.

Officials also recommend that all children age 12 and younger ride in the back seat.

Effective January 1 electronics can no longer be simply thrown out. They must be recycled. http://www.epa.state.il.us/land/electronic-waste-recycling/

Recently added to our Vendor list http://crr.vendordiscovery.com/ is AVA Recycling. www.avarecycling.com They will pick up electronics by appointment throughout the Chicago area for little or no charge. Please check out their website. Your clients may find this very helpful information.

A list of many CRR vendors is at http://crr.vendordiscovery.com This site can also be accessed from the Vendor & Professional Services list link on the right side of CRROffice.com Feel free to add your preferred vendors to that list as well.

Ray

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
You don’t believe me? Really? OK, I’ll prove it…

You probably won’t believe my proof, either. But it is absolutely true. Let me explain…

Yesterday, I wrote, “The U.S. housing bubble is completely over.” I said, “Now is time to buy.” Houses in America are “the best value they’ve been in many generations.” And I said that you can “pay below-market prices as banks try to unload properties.”

Apparently, you don’t believe me…

Some readers have told me: “Steve, you keep talking about these real estate deals, but you never show any actual details. Show me some proof.”

So today, I’ll show you two deals I just heard about. They are incredible…

First up… Grandma’s house:

Over the weekend, I got a call from my brother… “Steve, you’re not going to believe this… but Grandma’s house is up for sale. A bank now owns it. The size of the loan was like $270,000. But the bank is asking just $105,000. So I put an offer in.”

“Grandma’s house” isn’t a code word between my brother and me… He was talking about our actual grandmother’s house.

It’s a three-bedroom, two-bath house that’s a mile from downtown Orlando. It has a huge backyard. It’s the house my mom grew up in… I was bathed in the sink at this house. And it’s where I spent my first 20 or so Christmases. Years after my grandmother died, when I was grown up, I rented the house from our family.

Five years ago, my mom sold the house for $285,000. The buyer probably spent $60,000 upgrading it… new bathrooms, new kitchen, new deck. And then the buyer lost it to the bank. Now the bank is asking $105,000. My brother just put his offer in.

The realtor told him, “I could rent this place tomorrow for $1,500 a month.” Renting it is probably my brother’s plan. But he will likely make substantial profits on the house, too, as it goes up in value someday…

The house is roughly 1,500 square feet, with a great lot. So if you assume $100-a-foot building costs, plus a $50,000 lot – that gets you to $200,000. In a good real estate market, it should be worth a lot more than that. So my brother doubling his money is not out of the question.

Stepping back and looking at the big picture, you can see it’s finally happening in America. You knew it would someday. The real estate market is clearing. Banks are finally getting their real estate off their books… at any price.

Right now is the moment to make your deal. The time for extraordinary deals like this will pass… quicker than you think.

Here’s another example…

“You’re not going to believe the deal I just got,” a friend here on the Florida coast told me yesterday. “I bought a three-bedroom/two-bath house close to the beach for exactly $100,000. It was a bank-owned property. The bank’s original loan on it was something like $270,000.”

The story gets crazier… He told me, “The guy who defaulted on the loan still lives in the house. He’s paying me rent. I offered to sell the house back to him for $125,000 next year, and higher the next, and so on.”

My friend got a great deal. And as he pointed out to me, “The guy who defaulted wins, too… He’ll be able to buy his house back from me someday if he wants, for half of what he owed the bank – and it’s a nice profit for me. It’s crazy.”

This is it. This moment, right now, is the bottom in U.S. real estate.

Deals like these only happen at the “V” bottom – the quick dip down and quick recovery at the very bottom. If you want one of these deals, now is the time.

They will NOT be advertised in your local newspaper. You have to seek them out. You have to make the offers on properties. You have to roll up your sleeves and dirty your boots. But it will be worth the effort… if you can swing it.

These are real deals I’ve described to you. They are happening, right now. I heard about these two in the last 48 hours, and I wasn’t even asking these guys what they were up to.

In Florida, some banks are selling houses with $270,000 loans for $100,000. These two stories are proof. But trust me… You will not be able to buy houses for half of replacement cost much longer.

Now is your moment to buy. Get out there. Don’t let this moment pass!

Good investing,

Steve

Those Fools… The Housing Bust is OVER
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Monday, December 12, 2011
“The bursting of the global housing bubble is only halfway through,” The Economist magazine wrote recently.

I disagree…

Here in the U.S. at least, the housing bubble is completely over.

It drives me nuts when I hear commentators say, “We’re halfway through,” and, “We have more pain to come.”

Here’s the FACT: Right now, houses in America are the best value they’ve been in many generations. It’s not hard to understand…

The Economist showed a chart of home prices relative to incomes in that article. Instead of showing that home prices are expensive, the chart shows that U.S. houses are the best deal in history (going back four decades), relative to U.S. incomes.

Now, how can The Economist have an article about the continuing global housing bust… and then show a chart showing U.S. homes are the cheapest in four decades?

To attempt to explain this, The Economist says, “Prices [in America] may have reached a floor, but this is no guarantee of an imminent bounce.” Yes, that’s correct. We can’t know the future. We can’t know if another 5% dip is in the cards. But c’mon…

We CAN know that extraordinary value exists right now in U.S. housing. You have the chance to buy fantastic properties at possibly once-in-a-lifetime prices.

So what if there’s “no guarantee of an imminent bounce”? When do you get a guarantee like that in investing anyway?

Another gripe I have is that the housing price-to-income ratio – The Economist’s measure of value – is actually understating the opportunity. People don’t buy homes based on the price of the house relative to their income. People buy homes based on the mortgage payment of that house, relative to their incomes.

And right now, mortgage rates are off-the-charts low…

In 1980, mortgage rates were 15%. In 1990, they were 10%. In 2000, they were 8%. Today, they are BELOW 4%. It is the greatest deal in U.S. history.

Anyone who’s ever bought a house knows that a 15% interest rate in 1980 is dramatically different than today’s rates below 4%. Any measure of housing affordability over time that doesn’t consider the mortgage payment is simply not that useful.

Housing prices are the best value in history, according to The Economist’s own chart… And if you include mortgage payments in your calculation instead of house prices, U.S. houses are actually a dramatically better deal.

In short, now is the time to buy a house in America.

Look, I get it… Times are tough. Most people either can’t or won’t take my advice to buy a house. But it is the right advice…

I am trying to follow it myself… My right-hand man Brett Eversole has been forced to step away from his computers over and over again to go look at local properties with me.

And Porter Stansberry (the founder of Stansberry & Associates and the publisher of DailyWealth) is doing the same thing I am… investing in beaten-down real estate.

The reasons to buy now are incredibly simple:
U.S. home prices are more affordable than ever – by far. (Here in my home state of Florida, prices in many cases are down by half.)
Mortgage rates are down to record-low levels, below 4%.
You can often pay below-market prices (as banks try to unload properties, for example).
Of course, as The Economist says, there is “no guarantee of an imminent bounce.”

But with prices this low and with very few other great places to put your money in our zero-percent world… if you can swing it, you need to consider buying a house.

If you can buy right, and hang on for a couple years, it could be the lowest-risk, highest-reward investment you ever make…

In America, the bursting of the housing bubble isn’t halfway over. It’s COMPLETELY over.

Stop procrastinating. If you can do it, get on it, now.

Good investing,

Steve

Latest on License Law

License Transition Is Not the Same as Renewal
Remember that your license transition and renewal are two separate requirements and as such will require separate applications and fees.

• Sales to Broker – You will need to transition AND renew by April 30, 2012. There are two separate applications unless you file after Feb. 1, 2012 (per IDFPR it will be the same application form and one check to pay both fees). There are two fees: $125 to transition and $150 to renew (after Feb. 1, 2012 you can pay with one check or, if you are paying online, with one credit card payment). Initial indications from IDFPR are that if you wait you won’t be able to practice until your license comes back to you (could be more than six weeks).
• Broker to Managing Broker – You will need to transition by April 30, 2012 and renew by April 30, 2013. There are two separate applications and two fees: $150 to transition and $200 to renew.
• Broker staying Broker – You will only need to renew. There is one application and one fee: $150 to renew.

Still Have Questions About Transition? Call the IAR License Transition and Proficiency Hotline at 877-538-5861 or go to IARlicenselaw.org and review the IAR Legal Webinar on transition (note: longer download time for this program).

If you enjoyed working with the co-op agent on your transaction you may want to introduce him or her to CRR. We have a simple to complete Excel form under Section 3 on CRRForms.com Co-op Agent Recruiting Form that may peek their interest. Simply insert four pieces of information, sign the bottom, keep a copy and give the original to the co-op agent.

As you know, we pay a $75.00 referral fee to you for each agent who joins and lists you as the agent introducing them. Plus, you will be included in our contest going on until August 1st.

Good luck and thanks for your help!!